|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v BAWA A (Wed 08 Jun 2022)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Chris Wood (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-6,11-7,8-11,11-6:10-12,11-7,11-7,5-11,11-8:11-6,11-9,11-5:11-6,11-8,11-5. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,812, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Chris Wood: 6,699, level confidence: 62%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Chris Wood. Jack Alcock won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 29% better than Chris Wood in this match. As Jack Alcock has played below his allowed range at 8,937, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 10,119 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Wood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to -2.8% and Chris Wood changes to +6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes -1.3% and for Chris Wood becomes +2.6%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change. Given Chris Wood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is -0.6% and for Chris Wood is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 79%, Chris Wood: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 71%, Chris Wood: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,729, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Chris Wood: 6,788, level confidence: 71%. Notes
|