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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v Redland Summer B (Wed 20 Jul 2022)Match played between Tomasz Staruzyk (home) and Rich Macbride (away).Match won by Rich Macbride. Result: 8-11,4-11,9-11. Starting level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 2,571, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Rich Macbride: 4,819, level confidence: 63%. Rich Macbride to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Tomasz Staruzyk. Rich Macbride won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rich Macbride played 56% better than Tomasz Staruzyk in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rich Macbride was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,732 and 4,819 without affecting his level. In this case, Rich Macbride played at level 4,169 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rich Macbride would normally have been playing at level 4,322 (based on typical behaviour), Tomasz Staruzyk played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rich Macbride changes to 0% and Tomasz Staruzyk changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rich Macbride becomes 0% and for Tomasz Staruzyk becomes +1.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Rich Macbride is 0% and for Tomasz Staruzyk is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rich Macbride: 80%, Tomasz Staruzyk: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rich Macbride: 73%, Tomasz Staruzyk: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 2,599, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Rich Macbride: 4,812, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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