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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v BAWA A (Wed 27 Jul 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Richard Colman (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-2,11-3:11-8,11-9,11-6:11-9,8-11,11-2,11-7:?-?. Starting level for Mark Radley: 12,063, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Richard Colman: 4,762, level confidence: 60%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 153% better than Richard Colman. Mark Radley won 75% of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 91% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 47% better than Richard Colman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Radley was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,342 and 12,063 without affecting his level. As Mark Radley has played below his allowed range at 7,163, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 9,766 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Colman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 11.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to -1.4% and Richard Colman changes to +11.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes -0.7% and for Richard Colman becomes +4.1%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Richard Colman is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 81%, Richard Colman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 62%, Richard Colman: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 12,009, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Richard Colman: 4,881, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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