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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Redland Summer A (Wed 03 Aug 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Oli Costain (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-2:5-11,11-13,3-11:9-11,9-11,11-9,3-11:11-7,11-2,11-4. Starting level for Mark Radley: 12,009, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Oli Costain: 6,254, level confidence: 48%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Oli Costain. Mark Radley won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 65% better than Oli Costain in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Radley was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,123 and 12,009 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Radley played at level 10,500 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 10,683 (based on typical behaviour), Oli Costain played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to 0% and Oli Costain changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes 0% and for Oli Costain becomes +0.7%. Given Oli Costain's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Oli Costain is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 77%, Oli Costain: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 72%, Oli Costain: 64%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 12,039, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Oli Costain: 6,296, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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