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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Yate A v Workout Harbourside Summer 5 (Wed 20 Jul 2022)Match played between Bob Cant (home) and Maddie Freeman (away).Match won by Bob Cant. Result: 15-4,15-11,15-9. Starting level for Bob Cant: 738, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Maddie Freeman: 680, level confidence: 60%. Bob Cant to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Maddie Freeman. Bob Cant won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bob Cant played 88% better than Maddie Freeman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bob Cant actually played at a level of 970 and Maddie Freeman at a level of 517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bob Cant changes to +27% and Maddie Freeman changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bob Cant becomes +14.5% and for Maddie Freeman becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Bob Cant is +9.4% and for Maddie Freeman is -9.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Maddie Freeman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bob Cant: 81%, Maddie Freeman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bob Cant: 62%, Maddie Freeman: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bob Cant: 806, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Maddie Freeman: 647, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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