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Login: | Explaining level changesClaire Kedward v Maxwell Gunning (Thu 19 May 2022)Match won by Claire Kedward. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-7.Starting level for Claire Kedward: 1,852, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Maxwell Gunning: 1,746, level confidence: 67%. Claire Kedward to win as she is currently playing 6% better than Maxwell Gunning. Claire Kedward won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Claire Kedward played 80% better than Maxwell Gunning in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Claire Kedward actually played at a level of 2,413 and Maxwell Gunning at a level of 1,340. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Claire Kedward changes to +26% and Maxwell Gunning changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Claire Kedward becomes +10.7% and for Maxwell Gunning becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Claire Kedward is +5.4% and for Maxwell Gunning is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Maxwell Gunning is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Claire Kedward: 88%, Maxwell Gunning: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Claire Kedward: 67%, Maxwell Gunning: 63%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Claire Kedward: 1,948, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Maxwell Gunning: 1,695, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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