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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v Gordano A (Wed 31 Aug 2022)Match played between Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh (home) and Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand. Result: 11-15,9-15,8-15:12-15,6-15,8-15. Starting level for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 855, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand: 1,199, level confidence: 10%. Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh. Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand played 61% better than Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand actually played at a level of 1,284 and Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh at a level of 799. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 5.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand changes to +5.9% and Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh changes to -5.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand becomes +4.1% and for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh becomes -4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2022' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand is +3.1% and for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand: 32%, Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand: 30%, Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 30%. A final adjustment of +22.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 982, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank/Nick Hand: 1,564, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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