|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 v University of Bath 3 (Tue 18 Oct 2022)Match played between Peter Slater Jones (home) and Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak (away).Match won by Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak. Result: 15-11,13-15,8-15,9-15. Starting level for Peter Slater Jones: 964, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,191, level confidence: 57%. Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Peter Slater Jones. Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak played 25% better than Peter Slater Jones in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak actually played at a level of 1,197 and Peter Slater Jones at a level of 959. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak changes to +0.5% and Peter Slater Jones changes to -0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak becomes +0.4% and for Peter Slater Jones becomes -0.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak is +0.3% and for Peter Slater Jones is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 75%, Peter Slater Jones: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 75%, Peter Slater Jones: 89%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Peter Slater Jones: 964, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,198, level confidence: 75%. Notes
|