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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak (home) and Daniel Reeve (away).Match won by Daniel Reeve. Result: 13-15,8-15,10-15. Starting level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,227, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Daniel Reeve: 2,079, level confidence: 68%. Daniel Reeve to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak. Daniel Reeve won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Reeve played 48% better than Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak in this match. In this case, Daniel Reeve played at level 1,871 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daniel Reeve would normally have been playing at level 1,922 (based on typical behaviour), Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Reeve changes to 0% and Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Reeve becomes 0% and for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Daniel Reeve is 0% and for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Reeve: 82%, Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Reeve: 77%, Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 86%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,241, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Daniel Reeve: 2,078, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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