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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v University of Bath 3 (Wed 07 Dec 2022)Match played between Ben Brennan (home) and Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak (away).Match won by Ben Brennan. Result: 16-14,15-7,9-15,15-5. Starting level for Ben Brennan: 2,944, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,327, level confidence: 69%. Ben Brennan to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak. Ben Brennan won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Brennan played 28% better than Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Brennan was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,032 and 2,944 without affecting his level. As Ben Brennan has played below his allowed range at 1,858, his level reduction is 9.4% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Brennan would normally have been playing at level 2,497 (based on typical behaviour), Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Brennan changes to -6.2% and Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Brennan becomes -3.1% and for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak becomes +7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ben Brennan is -2.3% and for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak is +5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Brennan: 80%, Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Brennan: 61%, Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Brennan: 2,873, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Jedi 'Master' Wijitthanarak: 1,395, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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