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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 20 Oct 2022)Match played between Ronnie 'O' Sulman (home) and Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin (away).Match won by Ronnie 'O' Sulman. Result: 11-2,11-13,11-2,11-2. Starting level for Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 3,191, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 1,491, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Ronnie 'O' Sulman to win as he is currently playing 114% better than Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin. Ronnie 'O' Sulman won 75% of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 132% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ronnie 'O' Sulman played 60% better than Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ronnie 'O' Sulman was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,261 and 3,191 without affecting his level. In this case, Ronnie 'O' Sulman played at level 2,557 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ronnie 'O' Sulman would normally have been playing at level 2,738 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman changes to 0% and Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin changes to +3.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman becomes 0% and for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin becomes +2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman is 0% and for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 78%, Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 68%, Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 76%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 3,192, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 1,524, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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