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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v University of Bristol Chiefs (Tue 11 Oct 2022)Match played between Neil Beetlestone (home) and Ben 'Burger' Knight (away).Match won by Ben 'Burger' Knight. Result: 2-11,4-11,11-8,6-11. Starting level for Neil Beetlestone: 2,644, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,305, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Neil Beetlestone to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Ben 'Burger' Knight won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 78% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Burger' Knight played 43% better than Neil Beetlestone in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben 'Burger' Knight actually played at a level of 2,948 and Neil Beetlestone at a level of 2,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to +21% and Neil Beetlestone changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes +8.6% and for Neil Beetlestone becomes -9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight is +6.4% and for Neil Beetlestone is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Neil Beetlestone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 86%, Neil Beetlestone: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 67%, Neil Beetlestone: 61%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Beetlestone: 2,562, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,459, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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