|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Westbury David Lloyd A v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 10 Nov 2022)Match played between Chris Lawrance (home) and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-5,14-16,9-11:6-11,11-8,6-11,11-7,11-5:11-3,11-9,11-5:12-10,11-6,11-1:11-4,7-11,11-1,10-12,7-11. Starting level for Chris Lawrance: 3,990, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 2,832, level confidence: 36%. Chris Lawrance to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 7% better than Chris Lawrance in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 3,478 and Chris Lawrance at a level of 3,249. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +19% and Chris Lawrance changes to -8.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +7.2% and for Chris Lawrance becomes -3.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +5.4% and for Chris Lawrance is -2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 60%, Chris Lawrance: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 49%, Chris Lawrance: 70%. A final adjustment of +2.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Lawrance: 3,907, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 3,108, level confidence: 49%. Notes
|