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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Weston Slappers v University of Bristol Tryers (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Shaun Roche (home) and Dominic Murphy (away).Match won by Shaun Roche. Result: 13-15,15-8,16-14,15-12. Starting level for Shaun Roche: 767, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Dominic Murphy: 258, level confidence: 37%. Shaun Roche to win as he is currently playing 197% better than Dominic Murphy. Shaun Roche won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Roche played 23% better than Dominic Murphy in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Shaun Roche was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 412 and 767 without affecting his level. As Shaun Roche has played below his allowed range at 362, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Shaun Roche would normally have been playing at level 582 (based on typical behaviour), Dominic Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Roche changes to -4.1% and Dominic Murphy changes to +19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Roche becomes -3.6% and for Dominic Murphy becomes +10.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Shaun Roche is -2.7% and for Dominic Murphy is +8.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Roche: 82%, Dominic Murphy: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Roche: 53%, Dominic Murphy: 39%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Shaun Roche: 756, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Dominic Murphy: 279, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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