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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Workout Harbourside 3 v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 29 Nov 2022)Match played between Mike Bennett (home) and Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen (away).Match won by Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen. Result: 8-15,7-15,8-15. Starting level for Mike Bennett: 1,408, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 1,975, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Mike Bennett. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen played 96% better than Mike Bennett in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen actually played at a level of 2,333 and Mike Bennett at a level of 1,192. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen changes to +14% and Mike Bennett changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen becomes +6.4% and for Mike Bennett becomes -7.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen is +4.8% and for Mike Bennett is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Bennett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 84%, Mike Bennett: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 71%, Mike Bennett: 69%. A final adjustment of +5.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Bennett: 1,378, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 2,230, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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