|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 21 Sep 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-7. Starting level for Mark Radley: 11,918, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 5,947, level confidence: 53%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Ben Macdonald. Mark Radley won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 175% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 13,961 and Ben Macdonald at a level of 5,077. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +10% and Ben Macdonald changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +3% and for Ben Macdonald becomes -4.1%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Ben Macdonald's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +1.9% and for Ben Macdonald is -2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 79%, Ben Macdonald: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 68%, Ben Macdonald: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 12,171, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 5,793, level confidence: 62%. Notes
|