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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 21 Sep 2022)Match played between Emilia Korhonen (home) and Stephen Thompson (away).Match won by Stephen Thompson. Result: 8-11,6-11,6-11:9-11,7-11,5-11:4-11,8-11,11-9,11-7,4-11:8-11,8-11,4-11:4-11,8-11,7-11. Starting level for Emilia Korhonen: 5,055, level confidence: 38%. Starting level for Stephen Thompson: 7,524, level confidence: 47%. Stephen Thompson to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Emilia Korhonen. Stephen Thompson won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Thompson played 65% better than Emilia Korhonen in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Thompson actually played at a level of 7,922 and Emilia Korhonen at a level of 4,801. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson changes to +3.4% and Emilia Korhonen changes to -4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson becomes +1.7% and for Emilia Korhonen becomes -2.2%. Given Stephen Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Emilia Korhonen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to her level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Stephen Thompson is +1.2% and for Emilia Korhonen is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Thompson: 69%, Emilia Korhonen: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Thompson: 65%, Emilia Korhonen: 59%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emilia Korhonen: 4,843, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Stephen Thompson: 7,601, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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