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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland B v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 30 Nov 2022)Match played between Ian Fenner-Evans (home) and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (away).Match won by Ian Fenner-Evans. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 3,999, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,190, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Ian Fenner-Evans to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Ian Fenner-Evans won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Fenner-Evans played 74% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Fenner-Evans actually played at a level of 4,707 and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram at a level of 2,710. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Fenner-Evans changes to +16% and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Fenner-Evans becomes +5.6% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes -5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ian Fenner-Evans is +4.2% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Fenner-Evans: 81%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Fenner-Evans: 69%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 76%. A final adjustment of +1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 4,269, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,119, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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