|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 1 (Thu 03 Nov 2022)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 11-7,11-6,7-11,11-4:5-11,4-11,6-11:3-11,3-11,9-11:4-11,14-12,10-12,14-12,9-11:11-5,11-9,7-11,2-11,7-11. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,543, level confidence: 24%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 12,592, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 31% better than Mark Radley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson actually played at a level of 14,378 and Mark Radley at a level of 10,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +15% and Mark Radley changes to -4.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +4% and for Mark Radley becomes -1.7%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +2.4% and for Mark Radley is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 49%, Mark Radley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 43%, Mark Radley: 76%. A final adjustment of -3.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,434, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Mark Radley: 11,993, level confidence: 76%. Notes
|