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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 1 (Thu 03 Nov 2022)Match played between Fin 'Huggies' McManus (home) and Antoine Riehl (away).Match won by Antoine Riehl. Result: 5-11,4-11,6-11. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,041, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 9,307, level confidence: 45%. Antoine Riehl to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Antoine Riehl won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antoine Riehl played 120% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antoine Riehl actually played at a level of 11,122 and Fin 'Huggies' McManus at a level of 5,055. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl changes to +15% and Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to -9.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl becomes +4.5% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes -3.4%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Fin 'Huggies' McManus's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Antoine Riehl is +2.9% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antoine Riehl: 67%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antoine Riehl: 56%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 70%. A final adjustment of +5.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,116, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 10,333, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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