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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 6-11,7-11,8-11:11-4,11-4,11-1:6-11,11-6,11-9,2-11,5-11:11-8,9-11,11-6,11-8:11-2,11-5,11-4. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 8,680, level confidence: 41%. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,434, level confidence: 60%. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jeremy Harris. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 56% better than Jeremy Harris in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson actually played at a level of 12,994 and Jeremy Harris at a level of 8,306. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 3.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +2.6% and Jeremy Harris changes to -3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +1.2% and for Jeremy Harris becomes -1.7%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +0.7% and for Jeremy Harris is -1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 77%, Jeremy Harris: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 74%, Jeremy Harris: 61%. A final adjustment of +3.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 8,971, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,867, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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