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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Mike Nichols (home) and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (away).Match won by Mike Nichols. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-4. Starting level for Mike Nichols: 4,540, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,252, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Mike Nichols to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Mike Nichols won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Nichols played 200% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Nichols actually played at a level of 6,655 and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram at a level of 2,218. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Nichols changes to +38% and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Nichols becomes +11.2% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes -7.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mike Nichols is +8.4% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is -5.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Nichols: 68%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Nichols: 46%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 58%. A final adjustment of +2.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Nichols: 5,076, level confidence: 46%. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,135, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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