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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Dec 2022)Match played between Andy Lowe (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 4-11,3-11,6-11. Starting level for Andy Lowe: 7,500, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 11,459, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Andy Lowe. Mark Radley won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 154% better than Andy Lowe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 14,770 and Andy Lowe at a level of 5,819. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +20% and Andy Lowe changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +5.2% and for Andy Lowe becomes -6.5%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Lowe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +3.2% and for Andy Lowe is -4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 89%, Andy Lowe: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 69%, Andy Lowe: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Lowe: 7,176, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Mark Radley: 11,813, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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