|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Dec 2022)Match played between Luke Howells (home) and Antoine Riehl (away).Match won by Antoine Riehl. Result: 8-11,11-9,12-14,11-3,10-12. Starting level for Luke Howells: 7,530, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 10,825, level confidence: 52%. Antoine Riehl to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Luke Howells. Antoine Riehl won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antoine Riehl played 6% better than Luke Howells in this match. As Antoine Riehl has played below his allowed range at 8,881, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Antoine Riehl would normally have been playing at level 10,393 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Howells played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl changes to -9.3% and Luke Howells changes to +9.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl becomes -3% and for Luke Howells becomes +3.4%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Antoine Riehl is -1.8% and for Luke Howells is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antoine Riehl: 72%, Luke Howells: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antoine Riehl: 62%, Luke Howells: 67%. A final adjustment of +2.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Howells: 7,904, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 10,926, level confidence: 62%. Notes
|