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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Kanhav Nanavati (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 9-11,11-7,9-11,16-14,11-9:8-11,5-11,7-11:11-7,11-5,11-2:11-3,9-11,11-7,5-11,11-7:6-11,5-11,7-11. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 14,271, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,104, level confidence: 48%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Kanhav Nanavati. Luke Bishop won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 9% better than Kanhav Nanavati in this match. As Luke Bishop has played below his allowed range at 12,045, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Luke Bishop would normally have been playing at level 13,748 (based on typical behaviour), Kanhav Nanavati played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 9.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to -5.1% and Kanhav Nanavati changes to +9.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes -1.9% and for Kanhav Nanavati becomes +3.1%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change. Given Kanhav Nanavati's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is -1.1% and for Kanhav Nanavati is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 83%, Kanhav Nanavati: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 73%, Kanhav Nanavati: 61%. A final adjustment of +3.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 14,091, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,981, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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