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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 09 Nov 2022)Match played between Antoine Riehl (home) and Stephen Thompson (away).Match won by Antoine Riehl. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-2. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 10,333, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Stephen Thompson: 7,814, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Antoine Riehl to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Stephen Thompson. Antoine Riehl won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antoine Riehl played 136% better than Stephen Thompson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antoine Riehl actually played at a level of 13,796 and Stephen Thompson at a level of 5,853. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl changes to +29% and Stephen Thompson changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl becomes +7.2% and for Stephen Thompson becomes -7.1%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Given Stephen Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Antoine Riehl is +4.6% and for Stephen Thompson is -4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antoine Riehl: 83%, Stephen Thompson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antoine Riehl: 62%, Stephen Thompson: 64%. A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 10,825, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Stephen Thompson: 7,651, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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