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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 12 Oct 2022)Match played between Kanhav Nanavati (home) and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (away).Match won by Kanhav Nanavati. Result: 6-11,10-12,11-8,13-11,11-3:11-8,11-7,11-6:11-4,11-5,8-11,11-6:11-7,11-1,11-5:6-11,11-1,11-3,11-9. Starting level for Kanhav Nanavati: 9,789, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,734, level confidence: 26%. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Kanhav Nanavati. Kanhav Nanavati won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kanhav Nanavati played 11% better than Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kanhav Nanavati actually played at a level of 11,754 and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson at a level of 10,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati changes to +11% and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati becomes +3.5% and for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes -4.6%. Given Kanhav Nanavati's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati is +2.3% and for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is -2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kanhav Nanavati: 63%, Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kanhav Nanavati: 53%, Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 43%. A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,104, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,734, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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