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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 12 Oct 2022)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Fin 'Huggies' McManus (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,936, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,071, level confidence: 64%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 56% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus in this match. In this case, Jack Alcock played at level 9,712 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 9,933 (based on typical behaviour), Fin 'Huggies' McManus played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to 0% and Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes 0% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes +0.9%. Given Fin 'Huggies' McManus's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is 0% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 78%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 72%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 75%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,963, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,125, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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