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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 12 Oct 2022)Match played between Wai Au Yeong (home) and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (away).Match won by Wai Au Yeong. Result: 6-11,11-1,11-3,11-9. Starting level for Wai Au Yeong: 5,628, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,199, level confidence: 60%. Wai Au Yeong to win as she is currently playing 76% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Wai Au Yeong won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 63% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wai Au Yeong played 37% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram in this match. As Wai Au Yeong has played below her allowed range at 4,498, her level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Wai Au Yeong would normally have been playing at level 5,148 (based on typical behaviour), Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wai Au Yeong changes to -1.8% and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to +6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wai Au Yeong becomes -1% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes +3%. Given Wai Au Yeong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to her level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Wai Au Yeong is -0.7% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wai Au Yeong: 77%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wai Au Yeong: 68%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Wai Au Yeong: 5,601, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,279, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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