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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Workout Harbourside 1 (Thu 06 Oct 2022)Match played between Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (home) and Oli Harding (away).Match won by Oli Harding. Result: 7-11,6-11,10-12. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,109, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Oli Harding: 6,781, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Oli Harding to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Oli Harding won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oli Harding played 50% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oli Harding was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,740 and 6,781 without affecting his level. As Oli Harding has played below his allowed range at 4,704, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Oli Harding would normally have been playing at level 5,783 (based on typical behaviour), Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 7.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oli Harding changes to -0.4% and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to +7.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oli Harding becomes -0.2% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes +3.5%. Given Oli Harding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Oli Harding is 0% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oli Harding: 89%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oli Harding: 74%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,199, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Oli Harding: 6,839, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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