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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 30 Nov 2022)Match played between Jared London (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 10-12,11-3,10-12,7-11:11-8,11-6,11-8:11-7,10-12,11-3,10-12,10-12:11-8,8-11,11-5,12-10:11-4,11-9,13-11. Starting level for Jared London: 11,651, level confidence: 24%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 11,535, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Jack Alcock. Jack Alcock won 75% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 17% better than Jared London in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 12,526 and Jared London at a level of 10,729. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +2.5% and Jared London changes to -8.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +1.2% and for Jared London becomes -2.8%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +0.8% and for Jared London is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 90%, Jared London: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 83%, Jared London: 45%. A final adjustment of +10.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 13,818, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 11,780, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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