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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 23 Nov 2022)Match played between Kanhav Nanavati (home) and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (away).Match won by Kanhav Nanavati. Result: 5-11,11-9,11-3,11-4:11-7,11-9,6-11,11-2:11-2,11-7,4-11,11-8:11-7,11-1,11-4:11-5,11-2,11-5. Starting level for Kanhav Nanavati: 10,981, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 10,064, level confidence: 48%. Kanhav Nanavati to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Kanhav Nanavati won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kanhav Nanavati played 30% better than Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kanhav Nanavati actually played at a level of 11,995 and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe at a level of 9,213. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati changes to +5.5% and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -8.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati becomes +2.1% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -2.9%. Given Kanhav Nanavati's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Kanhav Nanavati is +1.3% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kanhav Nanavati: 88%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kanhav Nanavati: 81%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 64%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kanhav Nanavati: 11,132, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 9,872, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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