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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland B v Lansdown 1 (Wed 23 Nov 2022)Match played between Colin Wilson (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Colin Wilson. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-2. Starting level for Colin Wilson: 5,077, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,493, level confidence: 28%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Colin Wilson. Colin Wilson won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Colin Wilson played 313% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Colin Wilson actually played at a level of 12,527 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 3,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 147% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 110% and 110% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Colin Wilson changes to +50% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -110%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Colin Wilson becomes +13.7% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -23%. Given Colin Wilson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Colin Wilson is +10.2% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is limited to -8.7% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Colin Wilson: 78%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Colin Wilson: 32%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 21%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Colin Wilson: 5,569, level confidence: 32%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,128, level confidence: 21%. Notes
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