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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Workout Harbourside (Thu 20 Oct 2022)Match played between Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by Paul Frost. Result: 5-11,4-11,9-11. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,279, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Paul Frost: 5,687, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Paul Frost to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Paul Frost won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Frost played 83% better than Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Frost actually played at a level of 5,847 and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram at a level of 3,189. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Frost changes to +2% and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to -2.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Frost becomes +1.1% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes -1.4%. Given Paul Frost's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Paul Frost is +0.8% and for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Frost: 84%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Frost: 82%, Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 3,252, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Paul Frost: 5,746, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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