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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 23 Nov 2022)Match played between Adrian Heath (home) and Fin 'Huggies' McManus (away).Match won by Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Result: 5-11,10-12,12-10,7-11. Starting level for Adrian Heath: 4,890, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,476, level confidence: 51%. Fin 'Huggies' McManus to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Adrian Heath. Fin 'Huggies' McManus won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fin 'Huggies' McManus played 26% better than Adrian Heath in this match. In this case, Fin 'Huggies' McManus played at level 6,247 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Fin 'Huggies' McManus would normally have been playing at level 6,312 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Heath played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to 0% and Adrian Heath changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes 0% and for Adrian Heath becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is 0% and for Adrian Heath is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 72%, Adrian Heath: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 70%, Adrian Heath: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adrian Heath: 4,896, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,466, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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