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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Workout Harbourside A (Thu 01 Dec 2022)Match played between Georgia Everett (home) and Hannah Trewin (away).Match won by Hannah Trewin. Result: 3-15,8-15,7-15. Starting level for Georgia Everett: 129, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Hannah Trewin: 477, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Hannah Trewin to win as she is currently playing 270% better than Georgia Everett. Hannah Trewin won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 150% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Trewin played 150% better than Georgia Everett in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hannah Trewin was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 203 and 477 without affecting her level. In this case, Hannah Trewin played at level 324 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hannah Trewin would normally have been playing at level 326 (based on typical behaviour), Georgia Everett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Trewin changes to 0% and Georgia Everett changes to +0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Trewin becomes 0% and for Georgia Everett becomes +0.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Autumn 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Hannah Trewin is 0% and for Georgia Everett is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Trewin: 88%, Georgia Everett: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Trewin: 72%, Georgia Everett: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Georgia Everett: 128, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Hannah Trewin: 476, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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