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Login: | Explaining level changesRobert Mills v Lester Griffiths (Wed 26 Oct 2022)Match won by Robert Mills. Result: 9-15,15-8,15-10,12-15,15-10.Starting level for Robert Mills: 2,757, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Lester Griffiths: 2,081, level confidence: 64%. Robert Mills to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Lester Griffiths. Robert Mills won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Mills played 11% better than Lester Griffiths in this match. As Robert Mills has played below his allowed range at 2,443, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Robert Mills would normally have been playing at level 2,687 (based on typical behaviour), Lester Griffiths played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 6.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Mills changes to -3.9% and Lester Griffiths changes to +6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Mills becomes -2.4% and for Lester Griffiths becomes +3.7%. Given Robert Mills's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Lester Griffiths's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Robert Mills is -1% and for Lester Griffiths is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Mills: 90%, Lester Griffiths: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Mills: 82%, Lester Griffiths: 73%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Robert Mills: 2,731, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Lester Griffiths: 2,121, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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