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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland B (Wed 15 Mar 2023)Match played between Anna Kimberly (home) and Calum Davies Smith (away).Match won by Anna Kimberly. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-8. Starting level for Anna Kimberly: 5,423, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Calum Davies Smith: 4,195, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Anna Kimberly to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Calum Davies Smith. Anna Kimberly won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anna Kimberly played 40% better than Calum Davies Smith in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anna Kimberly actually played at a level of 5,635 and Calum Davies Smith at a level of 4,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anna Kimberly changes to +3.4% and Calum Davies Smith changes to -2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anna Kimberly becomes +1.8% and for Calum Davies Smith becomes -1.8%. Given Anna Kimberly's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to her level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Anna Kimberly is +1.4% and for Calum Davies Smith is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anna Kimberly: 77%, Calum Davies Smith: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anna Kimberly: 74%, Calum Davies Smith: 81%. A final adjustment of +4.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anna Kimberly: 5,886, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Calum Davies Smith: 4,189, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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