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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Rhiwbina (Wed 15 Mar 2023)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and James Peach (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 9-11,4-11,6-11:11-6,11-1,11-8:11-8,11-5,5-11,11-7:8-11,11-4,11-9,11-9:11-6,11-9,9-11,12-10. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,871, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for James Peach: 26,834, level confidence: 68%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 172% better than Jack Alcock. James Peach won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 74% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,687 and 26,834 without affecting his level. In this case, James Peach played at level 19,037 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 21,138 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Alcock played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Jack Alcock changes to +6.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Jack Alcock becomes +2.3%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Jack Alcock is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 82%, Jack Alcock: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 66%, Jack Alcock: 68%. A final adjustment of +2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,997, level confidence: 68%. Final level for James Peach: 28,228, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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