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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Rhiwbina v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 25 Jan 2023)Match played between James Peach (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 13-11,11-2,11-4:11-7,11-9,11-5:11-4,11-6,8-11,9-11,11-5:5-11,9-11,6-11:8-11,6-11,4-11. Starting level for James Peach: 18,982, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 11,486, level confidence: 54%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Jack Alcock. James Peach won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 106% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 21,187 and Jack Alcock at a level of 10,291. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 8.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +8.9% and Jack Alcock changes to -1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +2.5% and for Jack Alcock becomes -0.8%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for James Peach is +1.4% and for Jack Alcock is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 32%, Jack Alcock: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 29%, Jack Alcock: 66%. A final adjustment of +13.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 24,619, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 11,469, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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