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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 25 Jan 2023)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Jared London (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 8-11,9-11,4-11:8-11,4-11,3-11:11-9,13-11,8-11,11-6:11-9,2-11,11-9,8-11,5-11:11-7,11-7,13-11. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 7,471, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Jared London: 13,818, level confidence: 50%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Bradley Clare. Jared London won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 56% better than Bradley Clare in this match. In this case, Jared London played at level 12,061 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jared London would normally have been playing at level 12,447 (based on typical behaviour), Bradley Clare played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to 0% and Bradley Clare changes to +1.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes 0% and for Bradley Clare becomes +1%. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jared London is 0% and for Bradley Clare is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 71%, Bradley Clare: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 65%, Bradley Clare: 74%. A final adjustment of +6.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 8,496, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jared London: 13,870, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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