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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 10 May 2023)Match played between Ameeshenraj Chandaran (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-4:11-9,11-9,11-9:11-6,6-11,11-9,9-11,7-11:7-11,9-11,5-11:11-8,8-11,3-11,3-11. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,093, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 11,934, level confidence: 52%. Ameeshenraj Chandaran to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Jack Alcock. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 154% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ameeshenraj Chandaran actually played at a level of 27,571 and Jack Alcock at a level of 10,861. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 6.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to +4.8% and Jack Alcock changes to -6.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes +1.6% and for Jack Alcock becomes -2.3%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 48% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is +0.8% and for Jack Alcock is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 84%, Jack Alcock: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 77%, Jack Alcock: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,259, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 11,750, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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