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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Rhiwbina (Wed 01 Feb 2023)Match played between Dave Allman (home) and Peter Berkley (away).Match won by Dave Allman. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-8. Starting level for Dave Allman: 12,193, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Peter Berkley: 7,696, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Dave Allman to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Peter Berkley. Dave Allman won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Allman played 106% better than Peter Berkley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Allman actually played at a level of 13,912 and Peter Berkley at a level of 6,745. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Allman changes to +11% and Peter Berkley changes to -7.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Allman becomes +3.3% and for Peter Berkley becomes -2.7%. Given Dave Allman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Peter Berkley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Dave Allman is +2% and for Peter Berkley is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Allman: 73%, Peter Berkley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Allman: 64%, Peter Berkley: 77%. A final adjustment of -2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Allman: 12,074, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Peter Berkley: 7,482, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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