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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 15 Mar 2023)Match played between Ameeshenraj Chandaran (home) and Dave Allman (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-1:11-5,3-11,11-8,11-5:11-6,11-9,11-6:12-10,11-9,11-4:8-11,11-6,11-13,11-9,8-11. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 19,551, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Dave Allman: 12,314, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Ameeshenraj Chandaran to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Dave Allman. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 120% better than Dave Allman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ameeshenraj Chandaran actually played at a level of 23,014 and Dave Allman at a level of 10,461. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to +14% and Dave Allman changes to -9.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes +3.5% and for Dave Allman becomes -3%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change. Given Dave Allman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is +1.9% and for Dave Allman is -1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 75%, Dave Allman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 64%, Dave Allman: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 20,501, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Dave Allman: 11,726, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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