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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 15 Mar 2023)Match played between Mateusz Marcinkowski (home) and Oli Costain (away).Match won by Mateusz Marcinkowski. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-6. Starting level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 8,044, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Oli Costain: 5,903, level confidence: 41%. Mateusz Marcinkowski to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Oli Costain. Mateusz Marcinkowski won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mateusz Marcinkowski played 56% better than Oli Costain in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mateusz Marcinkowski actually played at a level of 8,619 and Oli Costain at a level of 5,509. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski changes to +3.9% and Oli Costain changes to -6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski becomes +1.8% and for Oli Costain becomes -2.6%. Given Mateusz Marcinkowski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Oli Costain's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski is +1.2% and for Oli Costain is -1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mateusz Marcinkowski: 80%, Oli Costain: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mateusz Marcinkowski: 75%, Oli Costain: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 8,129, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Oli Costain: 5,788, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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