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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 19 Apr 2023)Match played between Ben Macdonald (home) and Toby Kew (away).Match won by Ben Macdonald. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-4. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 5,547, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Toby Kew: 6,194, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Toby Kew to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Ben Macdonald. Ben Macdonald won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Macdonald played 94% better than Toby Kew in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Macdonald actually played at a level of 8,167 and Toby Kew at a level of 4,207. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald changes to +39% and Toby Kew changes to -44%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald becomes +10.8% and for Toby Kew becomes -12%. Given Ben Macdonald's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Toby Kew's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ben Macdonald is +7.9% and for Toby Kew is -8.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Toby Kew is limited to -7.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Macdonald: 90%, Toby Kew: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Macdonald: 61%, Toby Kew: 58%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 5,978, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Toby Kew: 5,948, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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