|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Rhiwbina v Lansdown 1 (Wed 08 Mar 2023)Match played between James Peach (home) and Antoine Riehl (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-8:9-11,8-11,8-11:5-11,5-11,1-11:11-5,6-11,11-3,4-11,9-11:11-7,5-11,15-13,8-11,11-9. Starting level for James Peach: 24,021, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 10,737, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 124% better than Antoine Riehl. James Peach won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 65% better than Antoine Riehl in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,479 and 24,021 without affecting his level. In this case, James Peach played at level 18,972 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 20,317 (based on typical behaviour), Antoine Riehl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Antoine Riehl changes to +3.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Antoine Riehl becomes +1.7%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Antoine Riehl is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 81%, Antoine Riehl: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 70%, Antoine Riehl: 78%. A final adjustment of +5.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 26,834, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 10,871, level confidence: 78%. Notes
|