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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Rhiwbina v Lansdown 1 (Wed 08 Mar 2023)Match played between Peter Berkley (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 9-11,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Peter Berkley: 7,223, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Radley: 11,813, level confidence: 47%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Peter Berkley. Mark Radley won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 40% better than Peter Berkley in this match. As Mark Radley has played below his allowed range at 10,093, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 11,020 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Berkley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to 0% and Peter Berkley changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes -0% and for Peter Berkley becomes +1.2%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Peter Berkley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Peter Berkley is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 69%, Peter Berkley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 63%, Peter Berkley: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Peter Berkley: 7,272, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Mark Radley: 11,793, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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