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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Rhiwbina v Lansdown 1 (Wed 08 Mar 2023)Match played between Frazer Richards (home) and Evan Davies-Clarke (away).Match won by Evan Davies-Clarke. Result: 11-5,6-11,11-3,4-11,9-11. Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,089, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Evan Davies-Clarke: 7,555, level confidence: 58%. Evan Davies-Clarke to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Frazer Richards. Evan Davies-Clarke won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Evan Davies-Clarke played 8% better than Frazer Richards in this match. As Evan Davies-Clarke has played below his allowed range at 6,913, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Evan Davies-Clarke would normally have been playing at level 7,441 (based on typical behaviour), Frazer Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Evan Davies-Clarke changes to -4.9% and Frazer Richards changes to +5.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Evan Davies-Clarke becomes -2.1% and for Frazer Richards becomes +2.5%. Given Evan Davies-Clarke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.7% has been applied to his level change. Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Evan Davies-Clarke is -1.4% and for Frazer Richards is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Evan Davies-Clarke: 76%, Frazer Richards: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Evan Davies-Clarke: 71%, Frazer Richards: 70%. A final adjustment of -2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,042, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Evan Davies-Clarke: 7,261, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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