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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 03 May 2023)Match played between Stephen Thompson (home) and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (away).Match won by Stephen Thompson. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-5. Starting level for Stephen Thompson: 8,855, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 9,716, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Stephen Thompson. Stephen Thompson won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Thompson played 106% better than Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Thompson actually played at a level of 13,321 and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe at a level of 6,459. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson changes to +48% and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson becomes +11.4% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -9%. Given Stephen Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Stephen Thompson is +7.5% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Thompson: 78%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Thompson: 52%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Stephen Thompson: 9,504, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 9,239, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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